Indian markets wrapped up Friday on a disappointing note, marking the third straight day of losses. Reliance Industries slipped after its much-anticipated annual shareholder meeting, while traders also reacted nervously to fresh U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. With global cues shaky and domestic concerns piling up, investors are now eyeing Monday to see whether Dalal Street can find some relief or sink further.
Here’s a complete breakdown of what went wrong last week, and the 10 major factors that could shape market action on Monday.
Why the Market Struggled on Friday
Reliance Disappoints Investors
Reliance Industries, one of the heaviest stocks on the index, turned out to be the biggest drag. After its shareholder meeting, where no big-bang announcements were made, the stock slipped and pulled the broader market down with it. Given RIL’s massive weightage in both Sensex and Nifty, its weakness is often felt across the board.
Tariff Tensions Heat Up
The United States recently rolled out steep tariffs on several Indian exports. This has hit sectors like textiles, jewelry, engineering goods, and especially shrimp exports. Analysts estimate the seafood industry alone could take a 15–18% hit this year, putting billions of dollars at risk. These worries added more selling pressure on Dalal Street.
Rupee at Record Low
The Indian rupee slid to a lifetime low against the U.S. dollar, closing around ₹88.31. Currency volatility, coupled with rising capital outflows, made investors even more cautious heading into the weekend.
10 Things to Watch Out for on Monday
- Global Market Cues Movements in Wall Street and European stocks will set the tone. If global indices remain weak, Indian equities may struggle to hold ground.
- Technical ChartsMarket experts say the charts are showing bearish signals. Whether Nifty can hold on to crucial support levels will be closely tracked by traders.
- Top-Traded StocksHigh-volume counters will again dominate. Watch out for Reliance, banks, and IT stocks, as they are likely to lead market direction.
- Buyer vs Seller Mood Will investors come bargain-hunting after three days of losses, or will selling continue? The opening hour on Monday will give strong clues.
- 52-Week High Movers Despite the weakness, some stocks are still hitting fresh highs. This could indicate selective investor confidence in certain sectors.
- Foreign vs Domestic Flows Foreign investors have been pulling money out in big chunks, while domestic institutions are trying to balance the selling. Monday’s numbers will be crucial to see who dominates.
- Auto Sales Data Monthly sales figures from auto companies are expected soon. Since autos are a key barometer of consumer demand, the numbers could sway sentiment.
- GST Council Signals Any word from policymakers on tax reliefs or incentives can provide a surprise boost. Investors will watch this space closely.
- Rupee Movement With the currency under pressure, any further weakness could hurt foreign investor sentiment even more.
- Crude Oil Prices Rising crude prices are always a concern for India’s import bill. If oil climbs higher, it may further weigh on market mood.
Why All of This Matters
Reliance’s underperformance showed just how dependent the market is on heavyweight stocks. Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs are not just short-term noise—they could hurt India’s GDP growth if they stay in place for long.
Foreign portfolio investors have already pulled out close to ₹35,000 crore this month, the highest outflow in six months. If this trend continues, liquidity in the market could tighten, dragging indices lower.
Export-driven industries like shrimp, jewelry, and textiles are staring at a challenging year, with billions in trade potentially at risk. At the same time, the falling rupee highlights India’s vulnerability to global shocks, despite RBI intervention.
Bottom Line
The week ahead will be crucial for Dalal Street. The market is facing a mix of global headwinds, domestic concerns, and technical weakness. For investors, Monday will be all about watching global cues, tracking Reliance’s recovery, keeping an eye on institutional flows, and monitoring the rupee.
In short, brace yourself because the start of the week could decide whether Dalal Street finds some relief or slips deeper into correction mode.