Bihar, 14 November 2025 – The early hours of vote counting in the 243-seat Bihar assembly election are painting a decisive picture in favour of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). With leads emerging across a broad spectrum of constituencies, the alliance appears on course for a strong victory, while the Mahagathbandhan opposition coalition struggles to keep pace. For the veteran Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his partner parties this could mark a political revival. For the opposition, it’s a stern test of relevance.
Counting began at 8 a.m. with results arriving steadily. By mid-morning multiple sources indicated the NDA leading on well over 140 seats, surpassing the majority mark of 122. Among the striking features: the alliance not only dominating its usual bastions but also making inroads in constituencies long held by the opposition. Experts suggest this reflects a broader shift in voter behaviour than the usual caste or regional alignments.
In Patna’s counting centre the mood among NDA workers is cautiously jubilant. One volunteer, speaking under condition of anonymity, said “This early lead gives us breathing room. People are waking up to the fact that results matter more than rhetoric.” On the opposition side the scene is different. A visibly tense atmosphere, muted discussion, and the realisation that the battle is slipping away early.
Why NDA is gaining ground
Several factors seem to be converging to work in the NDA’s favour in this election.
First, Nitish Kumar’s leadership appears to have regained currency. Despite previous swings in alliance loyalty, his image as a stabiliser in Bihar is providing traction. Several data points show the JD(U), his party, leading a large share of the seats within the alliance.
Second, the NDA has executed a strong outreach to core voter groups: women, rural households, backward classes, and migrant-worker families. One voter from a West Bihar district said: “My brother is away in Delhi so we handled the vote ourselves. What matters to us is job, security and clarity.” These themes of jobs and migration have featured heavily in the campaign.
Third, opposition disarray is visible already. The Mahagathbandhan entered with high hopes—youthful leadership, broad coalition, promise of change—but early figures indicate they may be underperforming. Congress, in particular, is seeing weak returns; smaller parties meant to be disruptive are yet to make major impact.
Fourth, a shifting caste map. Traditional strongholds of the opposition—regions dominated by certain caste groups—are showing signs of flipping. Analysts say the NDA is making gains in seats previously considered safe for the opposition. That undercuts the old formula of predictable vote banks.
Opposition falters and what lies ahead
For the Mahagathbandhan the early trends raise serious questions. A coalition built on ambitious promises now finds itself chasing rather than leading. One young activist aligned with an opposition party said quietly: “We expected the momentum of youth and change. But the groundwork seems weaker than we hoped.”
Key issues for the opposition: reclaiming lost ground, reconnecting with voters, and reworking strategy. They will need to ask: Was the message too generic? Did we misread the voter mood? Are our alliances and seat sharing optimal? These questions will matter not only in Bihar but in broader regional politics.
Smaller parties that sought to shake up the landscape—like Jan Suraaj Party—are showing little early evidence of traction. In a crowded field a weak showing may set the tone for future relevance. On the ground the opposition’s task now is not only to salvage any wins but prepare for a post-election scenario where they may not be the principal challengers in many seats.
Implications for Bihar’s governance and national politics
If current trends hold and the NDA secures a comfortable majority, Bihar will likely see continuity rather than abrupt change. Infrastructure projects, welfare schemes, and migrant labour issues may stay central. But with continuity comes expectation—and that means performance will matter more than ever.
For Nitish Kumar this could reinforce his position strongly within the alliance and in state politics. With JD(U) potentially emerging more dominant than before, internal alliance equations may shift, influencing governing dynamics.
On the national stage the stakes are equally high. Bihar has often been described as a bellwether state. A resounding win for the NDA strengthens its national narrative ahead of coming state elections and ultimately the general elections. Opposition parties must now rebuild state-level strategy to remain relevant.
One caveat for the ruling alliance: voter patience is not infinite. Issues raised repeatedly by citizens—unemployment, migration, rural distress—must translate into visible progress. As one young voter in Patna put it: “Winning is fine but when will we feel the difference in our lives?” The expectation bar is higher now.
Final word
Right now the numbers favour the NDA in Bihar and the early momentum looks strong. For the alliance it is an opportunity; for the opposition it is a moment of reckoning. Yet elections are rarely sealed until every last result is counted. The narrative may evolve further. What remains clear is this: Bihar’s political direction is being decided not just by alliances, but by how change is felt on the ground. And in that sweep of change, victories are only the beginning.