Adani Power’s Big Leap Forward
India’s private power sector has a new frontrunner. Adani Power, the country’s largest private thermal power producer, is now in the spotlight after global brokerage Morgan Stanley gave the company an “overweight” rating. The report goes a step further, projecting that the company’s earnings could triple by 2033 if it continues on its current trajectory.
This assessment has triggered fresh excitement among investors, who see Adani Power not just as a power producer but as a key driver of India’s energy transition — balancing rising electricity demand with financial discipline.
Why Adani Power Stands Out
Adani Power currently operates 12 thermal power plants spread across eight Indian states, with a massive combined capacity of over 18,000 megawatts (MW). That makes it the largest private player in the coal-based power generation space.
What makes the company particularly interesting is its ability to turn around struggling projects. Over the past few years, Adani Power has acquired stressed assets and transformed them into profit-making ventures. For instance:
- Raipur plant: When Adani took over in 2019, the facility was under financial stress. Today, its earnings have multiplied more than tenfold.
- Mahan plant: Bought in 2022, it has already quadrupled its EBITDA in just three years and cleared outstanding debts.
- Raigarh plant: Once non-operational, it is now contributing healthy annual earnings.
Such turnarounds have not only added to Adani Power’s capacity but also boosted investor confidence that the company knows how to extract value from troubled assets.
Morgan Stanley’s Bold Prediction
According to Morgan Stanley, Adani Power’s portfolio could expand by 2.5 times by FY33, raising its market share in India’s thermal sector from the current 8% to nearly 15%. In financial terms, that means the company’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) could triple over the next decade.
The brokerage highlights a few reasons for its optimism:
- Operational Efficiency: Adani Power’s plants have consistently maintained high availability levels, often above 90%.
- Secured Fuel Supply: Unlike many competitors, Adani has strong access to domestic coal and a well-integrated logistics system, reducing fuel risks.
- Debt Discipline: After years of deleveraging, the company’s debt-to-earnings ratio has fallen sharply, giving it financial breathing room.
- Regulatory Wins: Long-pending disputes and regulatory issues are gradually being resolved, freeing up cash flows.
In simple words, the company is no longer just about adding megawatts — it’s about adding profitable, sustainable megawatts.
The Bigger Picture: India’s Power Story
India’s electricity demand is projected to rise sharply over the next decade as the country’s population, urbanization, and industrialization continue to expand. While renewable energy is growing rapidly, thermal power still accounts for more than half of the country’s generation capacity.
In this scenario, Adani Power’s scale and execution capabilities make it a critical player in bridging the supply-demand gap. The company already generates around 8% of India’s coal-based power, second only to state-run NTPC.
For policymakers, a financially healthy Adani Power means fewer stressed assets in the sector and more reliable power supply for households and industries. For investors, it means a company that has both growth potential and a proven track record of handling risks.
What Analysts Are Saying
Market experts believe Adani Power is entering a “sweet spot” where operational improvements meet rising demand. As one energy analyst put it, “Adani Power is no longer just a story of scale. It’s a story of efficiency, execution, and financial strength. That’s why foreign investors are bullish.”
Another broker suggested that Adani Power’s ability to swiftly integrate newly acquired assets gives it a competitive edge that few rivals can match.
Risks on the Horizon
Of course, no power company is free from challenges. Rising global coal prices, potential environmental regulations, and the government’s push for renewable energy could impact margins. Moreover, the sector remains highly sensitive to regulatory changes.
However, Morgan Stanley argues that Adani Power’s strategy of securing domestic coal supplies, investing in digital operations, and gradually diversifying its portfolio gives it enough cushion to withstand shocks.
Looking Ahead
If Morgan Stanley’s projections hold true, Adani Power will emerge as one of the strongest power utilities in Asia by 2033. For investors, the “overweight” rating suggests confidence that the company’s stock could deliver attractive returns in the medium to long term.
For India, the company’s growth story is equally important. It highlights how private players can successfully revive stressed assets, reduce systemic risks, and contribute to the country’s ambitious energy goals.
At a time when electricity demand is surging, Adani Power seems ready to play a pivotal role in keeping India’s lights on — profitably.